On January 23rd, 2024, New Hampshire Voters went to the polls for their first in the-nation primary to select the Presidential candidate for both Democrat and Republican parties.
In a surprising upset, Trump harnessed his momentum from his win in the Iowa Caucasus and endorsement from Vivek Ramaswamy, Ron Desantis, and surprisingly moderates like Tim Scott of South Carolina to win big in a state where just a few short days earlier, Nikki Hailey was showing a decisive lead. According to the Associated Press, Trump won 54.3% of the vote while Nikki Hailey won 43.2%, winning 12 and 9 delegates, respectively.
Despite this upset, Nikki Hailey vowed to fight on into the South Carolina primary, continuing to position herself as the best conservative alternative to a return to Trumpist politics. However, Haley has been under increased pressure from Trump, Desantis, the Republican party chairman, and prominent donors to drop out of the race so the party can unify around Trump and move into the general election season. Experts in NPR have declared it is now inevitable that Haley will be forced to drop out of the race either during or just after the South Carolina primaries; while excelling in capturing the moderate, liberal, independent, and college-educated voters, she has failed to make inroads with the Republican party and Trumps key demographic, conservative working-class voters. However, this dependence on conservative and working-class voters may backfire for Trump and other Republicans, especially as Trump steps up his attacks on Haley and explicitly targets her race and gender, which could alienate key moderate and minority demographic groups that currently support Haley who could then swing and support Biden in general.
Biden’s campaign won a resounding victory on January 23rd, capturing 63.9% of the vote, despite Biden not even being on the ballot. This was the result of a concerted write-in campaign by Biden’s SuperPAC. Dean Phillips, a dark horse candidate seeking to unseat Biden as the Democratic Presidential Nominee, won 19.6% of the vote.
Biden’s absence from the New Hampshire primary ballot reflects an ongoing dispute between the Democratic National Party and the State of New Hampshire. By law, the State of New Hampshire must hold the first Presidential Primary in the nation. Still, this year, leading Democrats in the national party sought and got approved a rearranged primary schedule, putting South Carolina first in the primary schedule. According to the Democratic National Committee, this was an attempt to bring more diverse and populous states into the primary process earlier so they could have a more significant say in selecting party Presidential candidates. However, my discussions with the New Hampshire State Republican Party communications director and several representatives in the New Hampshire state legislatures all said that the move was to reward South Carolina for voting for Biden overwhelmingly Biden in the 2020 primary season and punish New Hampshire for not doing so. If this is the case, serious concerns should be raised over party influence on the primary schedule and whether candidates will start to select primary schedules that reward supporting states and punish opposition states. As it is, New Hampshire refused to reschedule their primary, resulting in the Democrats blocking funding for any presidential candidate running on a Democratic platform in the state, refusing to give a lot of delegates to candidates who won votes in the state, instead allotting all of New Hampshires delegates to Biden, and attempted a campaign of voter suppression by sending mailers saying the primary didn’t matter which prompted a cease and desist letter from the New Hampshire Attorney General.
As the 2024 election season heats, we have seen three main issue areas emerge: the economy, specifically high prices and low growth, the border crisis/crime, and foreign policy with education, abortion, the environment, and Social Security and Medicare being secondary but still important issues. How candidates formulate their campaign strategies and political policies to address these concerns remains to be seen. All we do know is that 2024 is shaping up to be a Trump v. Biden rematch.